Incorporating climate change into strategic forest planning: A Gagetown case study using new yields and succession rules for the Acadian forest


  • Cédric Albert École de Foresterie, Université de Moncton,


climate change, Acadian forest, succession forest


Climate change has been identified as a major threat to forest ecosystems worldwide, with significant impacts on forest growth, mortality, and composition. To ensure the sustainability of forest resources, it is critical to incorporate these changes into strategic forest planning models. We have developed a novel method for parameterizing strategic planning models (Woodstock) using a spatially explicit individual tree-based model derived from PICUS. Our method allows to produce climate-sensitive yield curves and transition rules to project the forest inventory under several climate scenarios. We applied this approach to the Gagetown forest located in southern New Brunswick at the center of the Acadian forest biome. Our results show that climate change could lead to a deficit of 10-40% of the available volume after only 80 years without any forest harvesting activities. Balsam fir, black spruce, and trembling aspen are the three most vulnerable species in the Acadian forest, dropping in relative abundance from 56% combined to 14-8% almost entirely in favor of red maple. This approach enables us to integrate our best knowledge of the climate sensitivity of each species and assemblage into strategic forest planning models and thus provide a pathway for future climate-adaptive management plans.

Author Biography

Cédric Albert, École de Foresterie, Université de Moncton,

Cedric Albert, from Paquetville New Brunswick always had an interest in forest management rather than commercial fishing like many others living in coastal areas of Eastern New Brunswick. At only 23 years old, Cédric became an associate professor at the University of Moncton, a PhD. candidate in Forest Management at the University of New Brunswick and a member of the Registered Professional Foresters association of New Brunswick. He obtained a bachelor’s degree in Forest Management from the University of Moncton in 2020 where he received several awards, including the gold medal from the Institute of Forestry of Canada. His research focuses on the impact of climate change on the growth, productivity, and adaptation of strategic planning of forests in Eastern Canada. Cédric has extensive field experience, having worked as a forest technician for Acadian Timber, where he conducted forest inventories and managed herbicide and pre-commercial thinning crews. He also worked as a research assistant at the University of Ottawa, where he contributed to projects on materials under extreme conditions. In his free time, Cedric usually manages his own private woodlot or help others to manage their own.